Overblog Suivre ce blog
Editer l'article Administration Créer mon blog

le blog lintegral

actualités, économie et finance, nouvelle technologie, entrepreneuriat, histoire et colonisation...


Du désastre Obama au boom Trump

Publié par medisma sur 8 Décembre 2016, 18:52pm

 

Du désastre Obama au boom Trump

La raison de la hausse des marchés d’actions US, et depuis peu de presque tous les autres, ce sont les perspectives grandioses de croissance et d’enrichissement offertes par le programme du nouveau président Donald Trump, par contraste au désastre Obama qui, en huit ans de mandat présidentiel, n’ a pas fait autre chose que d’enliser les USA, au même titre que ses collègues européens et japonais ont enlisé l’Europe et le Japon. Ce qui explique que, étant eux-aussi sur des sièges éjectables et les uns après les autres effectivement éjectés, les actions européennes et japonaises (en retard par rapport aux actions US) montent aussi. Plus les peuples en Europe déconstruiront le projet centralisateur, déflationniste et austéritaire européen qui a échoué et renverront ses propagandistes, plus les marchés d’actions de la région monteront.

 

https://www.amazon.fr/d%C3%A9sastre-Obama-Guy-Milli%C3%A8re/dp/2917617683

 

Trés bon article du Professeur Kenneth Rogoff :

 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-trump-economic-boom-isnt-so-farfetched-2016-12-07

__________________

Art Laffer a raison:

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/Politics/art-laffer-supply-side-trump-tax-policies/2016/12/07/id/762793/

____________________

https://fr.news.yahoo.com/donald-trump-d%C3%A9sign%C3%A9-personnalit%C3%A9-lann%C3%A9e-2016-time-143759891.html

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/Economy/Donald-Trump-Twitter-warning-industry/2016/12/04/id/762068/

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-12-06/japan-s-softbank-to-invest-50-billion-in-the-u-s-trump-says

La croissance mondiale s’améliore:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-06/these-two-charts-show-how-global-growth-looks-poised-to-shoot-up

Les actions US battent de nouveaux records (mais il ne faut pas acheter celles du secteur biotech, pharmaceutique et health care – quel qu’en soit le pays – parce que Trump fera baisser les prix des médicaments aux USA, leur principal marché mondial):

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-markets-record-run-signals-its-a-fools-errand-to-fight-trump-rally-2016-12-07

http://www.investing.com/analysis/the-russell-2000-is-going-higher-200168683

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-industrials-aim-for-fresh-all-time-high-2016-12-07

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/InvestingAnalysis/donald-trump-drug-prices-biotech-stocks/2016/12/07/id/762669/

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/president-elect-trumps-promise-to-bring-down-drug-prices-sends-biotech-etfs-slumping-2016-12-07

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-rally-by-us-stocks-is-just-getting-started-in-one-chart-2016-11-28

Une cassure à la hausse de 4900 sur le Nasdaq 100 serait très haussière avec 6349 comme objectif pour 2017 selon StockCharts.com

Les actions allemandes décollant enfin sont en mouvement vers leur plus haut historique…

Objectif Dax: 12250

http://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/germany-stocks-higher-at-close-of-trade;-dax-up-1.96-446291

http://www.investing.com/analysis/dax-flying-towards-the-stratosphere-200168584

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/european-stocks-rally-for-a-third-day-ahead-of-ecb-meeting

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/credit-suisse-miners-push-stoxx-europe-600-toward-highest-close-since-september-2016-12-07

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-05/ecb-buys-record-amount-of-debt-as-qe-frontloaded-before-holidays

 

La chute du VIX est de bonne augure pour un grandiose rally des actions de fin d’année

Does This Signal Mean Smooth Sailing For Santa Rally?

 

 

The VIX just notched a 3-month low; previous early-December occurrences have been generous to stock investors.

With 2017 fast approaching, all matters of year-end and December stats will be flying around. We may well be contributors to that phenomenon, though we will certainly endeavor to share relevant content as opposed to the trivial. Why focus on December-specific stats anyway since it’s just another month? Well, undoubtedly, there are some dynamics pertaining to year-end that make the month unique indeed – so we don’t have a problem with it. In fact, we’ll share a statistic today.

In past years, we’ve written several posts regarding December spikes in the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX). Our finding was that stocks had a tendency to do very well into year-end after such spikes in December. In fact, their record was perfect prior to the last few years. But that’s how markets work, i.e., once a phenomenon is identified, it gets exploited until it vanishes.

Today’s post looks at the opposite scenario. That is, what do stocks do after very subdued VIX readings in early December? Specifically, we looked at occasions when the VIX made a 3-month low, as it did today, during the first 18 days of December. While December has generally been a strong month, it has also not been immune to some adversity during the middle part of the month. Therefore, our expectation was that stocks had perhaps struggled following historical occurrences – if not through year-end, at least intra-month. That has not been the case.

Since the inception of the VIX in 1986, today marked the 30th time that it hit a 3-month low during the first part of December. Of the prior 29, 27 showed a positive return in the S&P 500 from that date into year-end, with a median return of +0.95%. Even the median drawdown until year-end was very contained, at -0.23%, with just one date seeing a drawdown before year-end of more than -2%.

 

 

So, like VIX spikes in December, VIX drops have tended to work out well for investors as well. Maybe we should chalk up much of the success to December’s typical strength overall. Although, as we mentioned earlier, mid-month adversity has often plagued the month of December – but not in this sample.

Again, one thing to keep in mind is that once such overwhelming tendencies are identified, they tend to get exploited away. Therefore, we can’t blindly assume that this track record will keep up. Additionally, if we place more weight on recent events, things become slightly less rosy. That’s because the last occurrence took place on 12/5/2014 and resulted in 1 of the 2 losses for the S&P 500 – and the one drawdown greater than -2% (-4.9% to be exact).

All in all, however, the preponderance of evidence lies with the bulls. Far from leading to a mean-reversion spike in the VIX and drop in stocks, 3-month VIX lows in early December have almost unanimously brought about continued favorable market action through year-end. That would suggest that perhaps the Santa Claus Rally is set for smooth sailing.

_____________

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

The commentary included in this blog is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific investment product or service. Proper due diligence should be performed before investing in any investment vehicle. There is a risk of loss involved in all investments.

#$SPY #$UVXY #$TVIX #$^GSPC #$^VIX #$XIV

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-catch-a-ride-on-wall-streets-record-wave-2016-12-07

Il ne faut pas s’inquiéter pour 2017, ce sera une année historique de profits pour les acheteurs d’actions qui sont en passe de devenir le principal, pour me pas dire le seul, actif financier de placement, alors que l’or, les monnaies et les obligations d’Etat se sont éclipsés en passant au second rang.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/analysts-see-these-large-cap-us-stocks-rising-at-least-30-in-2017-2016-12-07

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-07/india-confiscates-gold-even-jewelry-raids-hidden-money

Les rachats de leurs propres actions par les entreprises se multiplieront:

Il importe toutefois de garder les positions longues prises récemment sur les obligations d’Etat US (TLT et TMF) parce que les actions et les obligations d’Etat devraient pour quelques temps monter ensemble dans le contexte non-inflationniste actuel:

Très bon support sur l’euro/dollar US qui devrait remonter pendant que le US Dollar Index devrait rechuter :

(FMG)

Commenter cet article

Archives

Nous sommes sociaux !

Articles récents